How were the election polls and experts so wrong for the second election in a row? The analysts and pundits predicting a “blue wave” or “Democratic tsunami” were wildly wrong. Even conservative commentators like David Brooks predicted a big Biden victory (“This election won’t be close”), though after the election he admirably owned his error (“Pretty massive failure”). How were professional political pundits so off? Why did no one foresee the scenario that appears to be unfolding, where Biden ekes out a win but Republicans potentially retain control of the Senate and pick up seats in the House of Representatives? Why were some in the political class so surprised that Trump made substantial gains in the non-white vote?
In coming days and weeks, there will be many words offered in answer to these questions. Too many words, actually. Too much commentary. Too many opinions and takes. Too much information.
In fact, the only word I want to offer right now, as votes are still being tabulated, is a brief comment on how the too much information problem today makes the closer-than-expected election results so surprising to many.
My take can be summed up in the T.S. Eliot quote that opens chapter one of my forthcoming book, The Wisdom Pyramid: “Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?”
I might put it in the form of a short syllogism:
1. Information and wisdom are not the same. You can have a lot of the former and little of the latter, and vice versa.
2. Exposing your mind to too much information erodes your wisdom.
3. We need wisdom in order to navigate a world of too much information (sifting through fact and fiction, truth and falsehood, bias, spin, etc.).
4. Wisdom is both harder to gain but more necessary than ever in an information-overloaded world.
This is where we find ourselves, and this is why the experts and professional commentators can be so wrong. “Expertise” is no substitute for wisdom and common sense. We have more data points than ever. More information than ever is tracked, monitored, and available about politics. Shouldn’t we be able to understand things better? Shouldn’t we be able to make better predictions?
Not necessarily, because we still need to interpret the information well, connect it to other things we know, and make conclusions that involve information but are grounded in wisdom. But that’s harder than ever because the glut of information coming at us every day is actually making us more foolish and less able to skillfully interpret, connect, and conclude things about complex realities.
Some reasons why:
Information glut confirms bias and compounds echo chambers. Whatever narrative you want to believe, you can find or interpret data online to reinforce that narrative.
Information glut overwhelms our brains. With all the information they must process through daily, our brains have little energy left to skillfully synthesize or deeply reflect on it.
Information glut undermines consensus. With near infinite amounts of information and argument ammo online, there’s always a “what about?” counter-example or rebuttal. Plus, everyone tends to selectively choose “relevant” information based on prior leanings and biases.
Information glut oversimplifies. When our brains are in constant information triage mode, they naturally want to file things away in tidy, uncomplicated ways. When we have excessive information at our disposal, ironing out complexities and paradoxes is a cerebral defense mechanism—but it’s not conducive to wisdom.
Where do we go from here? How can we gain wisdom in a world of information overload? I think we need to be a lot more discerning about our sources and portion sizes of information. Where are we getting knowledge and information, and in what ratios? What occupies the primary place in our diet of information?
This is what I explore in The Wisdom Pyramid, suggesting that we need for our spiritual and mental health what the food pyramid is for our physical health: guidance for what to consume, what to avoid, and in what proportions. After 2020—and especially after this crazy election—the need to prioritize wisdom over information has never been more clear.